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At current rate, India will take 2.5 years to vaccinate 75% of its population

As the virulent spread of the second wave of Covid infections continues across the country, it becomes all the more imperative to get vaccinated as soon as possible, to gain immunity against the deadly virus.

But how long will it take for India to get a fair share of its population inoculated?

Well, according to data from Bloomberg, at 20.94 lakh doses a day on an average (as on May 12), India will take another 2.5 years to cover 75 per cent of the population. This is in stark contrast to the time that advanced economies such as the US and the UK will take to reach there.

G7 countries

For instance, both the US and the UK are expected to take only three months more to vaccinate 75 per cent of their population. Similarly, Canada, Germany and Italy will just require another four months, and France will take another five months for 75 per cent of its population.

This calculation is a function of the number of doses required and the current rate of vaccination, while keeping in mind the type of vaccine used (some vaccines such as Covishield, Covaxin and Pfizer/BioNTech require two shots, whereas the Johnson & Johnson vaccine requires only one shot). The current rate of vaccination is derived by calculating the 7-day moving average of the daily vaccination doses administered in the respective country. For countries that do not report the daily vaccination dose data, interpolation is used.

India’s latest rate of vaccination at 20.94 lakh is lower than the US’ rate of administering 21.62 lakh doses per day on an average.

However, India’s pace is higher than the UK’s 4.97 lakh doses, Canada’s 3.28 lakh doses, Germany’s 7.67 lakh doses, France’s 4.96 lakh doses and Italy’s 4.96 lakh doses per day, as of May 12. Japan, on the other hand, is expected to take longer than India. Japan will take another 2.9 years to vaccinate 75 per cent of its people at the latest rate of 1.74 lakh doses per day, Bloomberg data showed.

When compared with its emerging economy counterparts, the likes of Brazil, Mexico and Russia will take lesser time than India to inoculate 75 per cent of their demography. Per data from Bloomberg, while Brazil is expected to take another 11 months at its latest pace of vaccination (7.69 lakh doses per day), Mexico will take another 15 months (at 3.62 lakh doses per day) and Russia, another 16 months (at four lakh doses per day) to immunise 75 per cent of their people.

On the other hand, countries such as Indonesia, South Africa and South Korea are expected to take longer than India. While Indonesia is expected to take another 4.5 years at its latest pace of vaccination of 2.28 lakh doses per day, South Africa will take another 3.9 years (at 8,785 doses per day) and South Korea, another 2.6 years (at 76,466 doses per day) to inoculate 75 per cent of their population. Globally, at 223 lakh doses per day as of May 12, it will take another 15 months to vaccinate 75 per cent of the world’s population.

 


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